📋 Product Management · Discovery & Research

Size opportunities honestly

Bottom-up TAM math with explicit assumptions anyone can audit.

intermediate~30 minProduct ManagersProduct OwnersFounders

Steps

1Build bottom-up: segments × reach rate × conversion × price
2List every assumption with source and confidence rating
3Cross-check with one independent method (top-down or value-based)
4Present ranges with sensitivity on the two shakiest assumptions
5Separate 'market exists' from 'we can reach them' explicitly
6Date-stamp the analysis; markets move

Common Pitfalls

▲1% of China logic presented as sizing
▲Confusing total market with reachable segment

Commands

Install with skills CLI

$ npx skills add aniruddhaadak80/skills --skill discovery-opportunity-sizing

Install globally

$ npx skills add aniruddhaadak80/skills --skill discovery-opportunity-sizing -g

Tags

#strategy#market-sizing#product-management#discovery

Install this skill

$ npx skills add aniruddhaadak80/skills --skill discovery-opportunity-sizing -a opencode

SKILL.md

# Size opportunities honestly

> Bottom-up TAM math with explicit assumptions anyone can audit.

## When to Use This Skill

Bottom-up TAM math with explicit assumptions anyone can audit.

## Steps

1. Build bottom-up: segments × reach rate × conversion × price
2. List every assumption with source and confidence rating
3. Cross-check with one independent method (top-down or value-based)
4. Present ranges with sensitivity on the two shakiest assumptions
5. Separate 'market exists' from 'we can reach them' explicitly
6. Date-stamp the analysis; markets move

## Common Pitfalls

- 1% of China logic presented as sizing
- Confusing total market with reachable segment

View source on GitHub ↗

Past-behavior questions, silence discipline, and synthesis habits that surface real problems.

📋 Product Management·~30m

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Size opportunities honestly

Steps

Common Pitfalls

Commands

Tags

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